A great condensed version of what’s going on with the Argentine debt crisis.
A look at how the world ended up Todos Contra Argentina
Holding on
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Apple & IBM Partnership
So long are the days of intense detestation for each other. Today, Apple CEO, Tim Cook, and IBM CEO, Ginni Rommety announced that their companies were partnering for the future. The main goal of this partnership is to create “Made-For-Business” apps for Apple’s iPhone, iPad, and Mac devices with the help of IBM’s big data and analytics. At first look, this partnership is a win-win as it helps IBM move towards capitalizing on the “mobility” driver of the technology sector and it helps Apple reach towards the enterprise market, a weaker area compared to its stronghold on the consumer market. Both company’s stocks were up after market hours on the announcement.
Along with the partnership, Apple is looking to bring an iPhone with a larger screen to the market soon and recently hired a Tag Heuer exec for its future iWatch. This leads to a testing time for Samsung, whose earnings missed big on S4 sales last week. Apple reports 2Q 2014 earnings on July 22nd and is consensus analyst earnings have them coming in with $1.22 EPS for the quarter. Time to wait and see.
Bank Earnings Beat
Speaking of earnings, which are for the most part kicking off this week, we saw Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan beat expecting earnings this morning pretty handedly. JPM reported EPS of $1.46 compared to consensus analyst estimates of ~$1.29. The beat came from their fixed income trading profits declining less than expected in a market that has been characterized by low volatility.
Goldman crushed expectations and became the first bank so far to report higher revenue in 2Q14 than 2Q13. GS’s reported $4.1 EPS vs expectations of ~$3.2. Increased revenues from boosted activity in their investment banking and investment management arms were helpful with their beat.
It’s not often that a company’s stock goes up on the same day it announces that it has to pay $7 billion dollars to end a government investigation, but today, that was just the case. Citigroup came out a relative winner today. On the same day it reported signing a $7 billion agreement to end government investigation into its MBS activities that helped cause the crisis, it reported EPS of $1.24 vs expectations of ~$1.05. Helping this earnings beat was the fact that its trading revenues fell less than expected, which seems to be the common theme among Wall Street banks so far this earnings season.
Yellen Grilled On JPM’s “Living Will” & Moves Markets
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen went in front of the Senate Banking Committee to deliver the semiannual monetary policy report today. A majority of the questions that were asked came to no surprise.
A summary of the questions:
These questions received the usual answers that we’ve been hearing for the last few months.
Two noteworthy pieces did come out of Ms. Yellen’s testimony to Congress.
Fixing The Shiller CAPE Model
Philosophical Economics wrote a great piece about the downside of relying on the Shiller CAPE ratio. While the tool has been criticized because it has been consistently stating that equities are overvalued for a large part of the last decade, very few have proposed a solution to fix the model. This piece goes into great detail to describe how changes in earnings due to small tweaks in GAAP and the treatment of goodwill have affected it. Perhaps, Pro-Forma adjustments are the solution? However, changes definitely need to be made in order for investors to continue to claim that the Shiller CAPE is still a credible model going forward.
KKR Charging Its Own Investments I-Banking Fees
A little over two weeks ago, payment processing company First Data received a $3.5B equity injection from its controlling private equity companies. I noticed this when the highly levered company’s bonds dropped in yield significantly from this action and made some big news in the credit markets. This financial engineering move has the potential to save the First Data billions of dollars going forward if they decided to call their debt and reissue at assumed lower borrowing rates with an improved credit outlook. However, I came across this article that shows KKR went ahead and just took $40mm out of that $3.5B total for underwriting fees. I’ve never heard of a P/E firm pulling this move, but it could potentially be the industry standard for private companies with multiple large owner interests going forward.
The End of QE (Is In Sight)
After its June meeting, the Fed has made plans to end its quantitative easing program in October of this year. In that month, the Fed will purchase its final $15B in bonds and mortgage backed securities (presumably until the next recession). This meeting was held before the release of the extra 288K+ non-farm jobs added in June, which goes to support the Fed’s theory that the economy will continue to slowly improve & support itself and that the stimulus isn’t needed anymore.
While this clears up one of the questions for the Fed, a more important question remains for investors: when will interest rates go up? When quantitative easing began during the crisis and rates plunged down to zero, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated over and over again that rates will remain low for a considerable time and to his credit, they have. However, FOMC members have been hinting at a future rate increase coming in the next few years which has led to a lot of speculation. Wall Street is starting to pay more attention to the FOMC “Dot Plot” which shows where each FOMC member thinks the Fed benchmark rate will be at certain points over the next two years and beyond.
This chart shows congruency among the members of their thoughts on the rates through 2014 and going forward after 2016, however we see a lot of differing opinions as to where the Fed benchmark will be in 2015 and 2016. There are a lot of differing thoughts on the future of rates, from PIMCO’s Bill Gross betting big on a “New Neutral” to Goldman’s Jan Hatzius’s thoughts. Only time will tell who the winner is, but we know who the loser will be; the FOMC having to deal with Wall Street’s prying questions and pressure over the next few years.
A Better LIBOR?
Interesting piece by Quartz on how a new company called Credit Benchmark which is aiming to create more reliable and transparent benchmark data. With banks being accused of manipulating LIBOR and a handful of other reference rates, it sounds like this company could have a shot. It reminds me of IEX, the exchange created after the controversy caused by predatory high frequency trading earlier in the year. I really hope this pans out and becomes the new normal because after all of the lawsuits being brought on banks in the past few years, some ethics and credibility in major financial institutions is much needed.
More:
-How to improve the lack of liquidity in the credit markets?: get rid of the complexities of the debt issues and make them similar to the equity markets on the exchanges.
-We just had DOW 17,000 yet short selling is low?
-Charts that show why trading volume remains low: increased regulation & ETF popularity
-Effects of taxes show that being the best trader in the world doesn’t compare to buy-and-hold results
–Myths that hurt investors. Just remember, you’ll never be Buffett, nor will the stock market make your riches for you.
-Everyone will eventually own a smartphone and Android will disappoint from here on out
Finally, An Idea For A Legitimate Show On Investing
Every day at my internship, the mounted televisions show a muted CNBC. While the channel sometimes does show decent programming (interviews with industry leaders are about all I’ll watch), a majority of it is just useless noise that investors shouldn’t bother with. The worst part about some of the programming is that people will make emotional-based trades (the worst kind) based off of what some “financial pundit” says on TV. It’s important to remember that the pundit making these recommendation has no idea about your background, education, financial standing, needs, or goals and top of that, they’re right about their picks about as often as you are. Most don’t realize this fact because the financial gurus on TV aren’t actually held accountable for their picks. When was the last time you heard one of them say “Oh, uh…yeah, last month I told you to buy XXX company and now it’s down XX%. I’m sorry about that.”? The answer is “Never.”
One of my favorite blogs to read consistently, A Wealth of Common Sense, recently featured on article on how to create a solid television show about investing. Here are Ben’s thoughts on his idea for a financial TV show that will cater to a long-term investor
– It would only be on once a week.
-Weekly guests would include the different ETF and mutual fund providers along with portfolio managers to explain their strategies and fund options.
-The audience could call/email/tweet their questions on the portfolio management process.
-There would also be a financial advisor segment to discuss how they run their client portfolios and any issues that seem to come up on a regular basis.
-Guests would get at least 15-20 minutes a piece instead of the 5 minute soundbites they get now so they could explain themselves and their positions in detail (other guests would include authors, bloggers, academic researchers and successful individual investors).
-Obviously, you would need many different voices to share their experiences and thoughts since there isn’t a single way of doing things.
-A focal point would be investor behavior and how human nature messes with our decision-making process. There is talk of the ‘dumb money’ from time to time on financial programs these days, but not much coverage gets paid to the long list of cognitive biases that seem to affect every investor, both professional and novice, in different ways.
Ben really hits the nail on the head with this article and it would be delightful to see a show on TV that actually educates its audience on the fundamentals and what’s really important. Now if this was made into a show, I would actually watch intently and encourage others to do the same. However, it’s not likely to ever happen as it wouldn’t feature men screaming at exchanges and other annoying eye-catching “entertainment” that the current programming is so fond of.
Lack Of Literacy
According to a study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, American teens are lagging behind in financial literacy, especially when compared to top countries like China and Belgium. The executive director of the Foundation for Financial Planning, Jim Peniston had a quote that caught my eye:
“I don’t put it on the school system, I put it on our generation. What do kids learn? They learn from what they see at home.”
I agree and disagree with Jim on this quote. I do believe it is important for parents to teach their children the value of money, the importance of saving, and to educate them on the rest of the financial basics. However, I do believe that the lack of financial literacy is a failure of our education system. Financial literacy is one of the most important skills to be taught in schools, from elementary to university, as I wrote about here. I’d go as far as to argue that a student’s level of financial literacy is far more important than their GPA. Those that don’t understand it generally end up taking on more debt, accumulating less wealth, and being poorly prepared for retirement or personal emergencies. While I do believe that this should be taught by parents, I see no excuse as to why it has not been taught in schools. It gives kids a solid foundation for financial well-being and will prove useful throughout their entire lives, unlike, you know, an art class.
Golf Courses: The New Distressed Asset Investing
Private equity firms are heading into new assets, like troubled US golf courses. The last decade hasn’t been good for most of those in the golf business. The boom in new golfers with the emergence of Tiger Woods as a dominant player in the late 90’s and early 2000’s has faded away. That, paired with tough economic times has led to a decline in new golfers, rounds played, and overall profits of golf courses. Last year, only 14 new courses opened while 157 closed down as owners decided to shut their doors rather than continue to take losses with the extensive operating expenses that are required for basic course upkeep.
It will be interesting to see how these investments pay off. While I’m not sure that golf will ever return to the Tiger-mania days that had new golfers out to the courses in droves, I think it could make a rebound if younger golfers get hooked again. The PGA is rolling out its new “A Quick Nine” initiative to get golfers to play nine holes, versus the typical four hour 18 hole round. Perhaps a shorter time commitment could attract more people that aren’t willing to spend half their day playing golf. Regardless, it will be important for these private equity firms to find a way to create value for a new version of customers if they really want to turn the business around. I believe that this could come from expanding some of the services the golf club offers (spas, workout facilities, pools, etc.) and changing up the membership styles to be more customizable and attractive.
Battle For Bankers
Private equity firms are really starting to piss off investment banking programs with their recruiting tactics. What’s next? Going “full SEC football” and laying dibs on middle school students? Okay, maybe that was a little exaggerated, but the recruiting intensity is ramping up as we see a lot of young talent heading away from Wall Street for Silicon Valley.
Michael Lewis: Not A Fan Of Deeb Salem
I’ve always been a big fan of Michael Lewis’s work from Liar’s Poker to Moneyball (Flash Boys is still on my reading list). The other day he made fun of Deeb Salem, the former Goldman Sachs trader who is disgruntled about not getting the millions that he was “promised”, in a fake letter to his mother and oh was it funny.
All-Time Investor Scoreboard
From @HarrimanHouse
Just over three weeks ago, I was one of nearly 150,000 candidates signed up to sit for one of the levels of the CFA Program. As I strolled into the Des Moines testing center, shuffling through my pile of notecards one last time, I wasn’t surprised to look up and see faces that ranged from “falling asleep exhausted” to “on the verge of tears.” However, something did surprise me about the crowd: there were very few candidates that appeared to be my age.
So why did I, a college senior, decide to sign up to take what is commonly known as Wall Street’s hardest exam?
Prior to starting my internship as a credit research analyst, I had only heard a little about the designation. It wasn’t until the first day at my internship that I noticed how prevalent it was in the investment management world. After meeting with many of my new coworkers, flipping through pitchbooks, and looking through sell-side research reports on Bloomberg, I realized that it was actually relatively uncommon for analysts and portfolio managers to NOT have those three little letters at the end of their name.
My thoughts were reaffirmed after looking at the different professions that CFA charterholders currently work in. One can certainly tell that the designation is most prevalent in investment management. The most popular positions held are:
Furthermore, a lot of job postings for investment management, portfolio management, or equity/credit research roles will have a note in the applications that say they are specifically looking for candidates that have their CFA charter. Take a look around on LinkedIn and Indeed, even for entry-level positions, and a common theme is to see lines like “Completion or progress toward CFA Designation preferred” or “CFA Designation is an asset.”
I recognized that if I passed this exam, just being able to add the simple “Passed CFA Level I Exam” to my résumé could potentially open up some doors in my future job search. Obviously, it wouldn’t guarantee me a job, but it could be the difference between a firm offering me an interview and them tossing my résumé in the trash. When competing against some of the world’s best and brightest for top entry-level finance roles, a job candidate needs every edge they can get. Having even the slightest edge on my résumé is increasingly important in today’s world as top Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley are giving offers to less than 2% of summer analyst applicants. (For comparison, Harvard’s acceptance rate was 5.9% last year.)
Hiring managers are looking for a lot of different things when screening candidates, with some of the top basic requirements being:
While these questions can be answered by asking challenging interview questions and taking a look at prior academic performances, I personally believe that making progress towards earning the charter helps to answer all of these concerns. The men and women in this line of business know what it takes to be a successful CFA charterholder and that’s why the designation is so well-respected.
The Candidate Body Of Knowledge, or CBOK, covers an expansive amount of investment knowledge and is no easy endeavor, to say the least. The Level I books total over 3,000 pages and candidates study, on average, over 300 hours. Oh, and keep in mind that the average candidate fails. The curriculum has candidates diving into everything from ethical dilemmas to the calculations of bond convexity and duration via seemingly endless readings, question banks, and mock exams over a 5-6 month period. Personally, I found that I learned more from five months of self-taught studying than I learned in over three years of attending college classes requiring tens of thousands of dollars in tuition, but I digress.
Studying over 300 hours for the Level I Exam while taking college classes, working a job, and handling numerous other responsibilities is quite the achievement. Taking on this difficult program that fails a majority of its candidates requires a true passion for investing to keep from burning out and giving up. It shows that candidates that sign up for the program have decided to invest in themselves and continue their education past their undergraduate years. The passion and tenacity that candidates demonstrate might as well be considered as a prerequisite for breaking into top finance roles.
Those that are majoring in finance already have a solid knowledge base of the major CBOK topics and have the classwork relatively fresh in their mind versus those that have been out of school for more than a few years. Taking a look at the weights, most students will realize that by the time they’re seniors, they’ll have learned at least a little about a majority of the topics, the only real outlier being the “Ethics and Professional Standards” section that accounts for 15% of the Level I exam.
In my opinion (and from what I’ve heard from my colleagues), it’s definitely easier to get a head-start and take it while you’re younger. As a senior in college, you (hopefully) aren’t married and you don’t have any kids. Imagine trying to study 20+ hours a week after working 60+ hours and simultaneously having a marriage and handful of kids to tend to. Sounds a lot more difficult doesn’t it? No thanks, I’ll pass.
“But how do I find time for over 300 hours while attending school?”
As long as you plan ahead and allow five to six months for studying, it’s actually not that hard to fit the studying into your schedule. If your target goal is to study 340 hours over 6 months (26 weeks), you’ll need to add around 13 hours per week into your schedule. At first, this may seem like a lot, but it’s less than two hours per day on average. Yes, this may mean you’ll have spend a little more time in the library and a little less in the bar, but you’ll live and it’ll be entirely worth it at the end. Contrary to the commonly perceived belief, you can still have a social life as long as you plan your study schedule appropriately and study efficiently (this means turning your phone off).
Regarding costs, the initial one-time enrollment fee is $440 and the exam fee is discounted the further ahead you sign up.
Although $1,040+ for one exam can sound like a lot to a college student, if you do a little cost-benefit analysis and put it in perspective, it will probably turn out to be around the same, if not less, than one class at your university. In addition, that amount also pays for the six CFA Program books that you’ll be getting quite familiar with. Besides signing up early, another way to potentially save some money is to check out your local CFA Society to see if they offer any scholarships. Additionally, don’t be scared by the annual dues that charterholders are required to pay. Odds are that your future employer will actually cover those costs for you as well as the remainder of your exam fees.
Believe it or not, the biggest cost of the program is actually the opportunity cost. If you spent those 300 hours working at $15/hour, you could pull in and additional $4,500 before taxes. Right now, that’s a considerable amount of money for me and other college students. However, I believe that those opportunity costs right now are much smaller than the opportunity costs I would be faced with if I delayed the studying into my late twenties or thirties. It makes total sense to believe that with a bachelor’s degree and a couple years of industry experience under my belt, my future time and compensation will be valued at more than $15/hour.
One of the least talked about perks of the CFA Program is that it’s a great way to network. Take a look at your local CFA Society and you’ll likely see successful individuals from top firms in your state/region that make up the leadership team and board of directors. Signing up and attending some of these events could perhaps be the most beneficial part of the CFA program. It’s a great way to gain some insight on the industry from experienced professionals and to introduce yourself to the industry leaders that could one day help you land a job.
The decision to sign up and commit to the rigorous program is not one to be taken lightly. The CFA charter is one of the hardest designations to obtain and it provides benefits only within certain areas of finance. You should make sure your decision is based on a true interest in investing and the corresponding material that you will be spendings months, and eventually years, on. If you believe you are interested in the program, I would highly recommend doing some additional research for a few days on all of the requirements and expectations to make sure that it really is the right fit for you at this point in your life. I was lucky and was able to study for it while interning full-time and not taking college classes. I had many discussions with friends and coworkers that are charterholders or are currently pursuing the charter before I decided to make the leap and sign up.
Even if I hear back in late July that I did not pass, I will still look back favorably on my time spent studying. I took on the biggest challenge in my life thus far, learned skills and a wealth of information applicable to my internship and personal investing, and helped prepare myself for a role as a future analyst. I learned a lot about the CFA curriculum, but just as importantly, I also learned a lot about myself along the way.
Disclaimer: All opinions are my own. The CFA Institute does not endorse or promote any part of this blog. CFA Institute, CFA®, and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
Curious Analysis 